Sammy Sosa stands at 499 career home runs. One more, and he'll have 500. Now, there are only 17 people who have ever hit 500 home runs or more. This year, 3 or 4 could cross that mark. And this raises a question, does this cheapen the club?
Well, to put it simply yes. Baseball has gone through an offensive explosion during the 1990's. People hit more home runs now than they ever have. There have been 50 home runs hit in a single season only 35 times. The people who have done it:
See something odd there? The 2000's have already had as many 50 home run seasons as the 50's, 60's, 70's and 80's combined. Now, there are two possible reasons for this. Either, a: there are much better players today than there were 20 or 30 years ago, or b: its much easier to hit home runs today. It almost certainly is easier to hit a home run today. From 1998 to 2002, Sammy Sosa hit 292 home runs. This season, as he reaches 500, 2/3s of that accomplishment came in only 5 years. He wasn't even the most dominant player during those years, leading the majors in HR's only once.
Now, I'm not saying this to cheapen Sammy Sosa. Sammy is a great ballplayer, and his consistancy with power is definately worth something. Probably a place in the hall of fame. What he did was an incredible feat.
The list of 500 home run men is filled with some of the best players ever. But not all of them. Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg, Stan Musial, and Carl Yastrzemski all missed the mark. All of them were great players.
And I certainly don't think that Fred McGriff and Rafael Palmerio are anywhere as near as good as Hank Greenberg and Lou Gehrig. There is simply no comparison. Fred McGriff is a good player. I don't think that he is a great player, and I certainly don't think that he is one of the best who ever lived. I wouldn't vote for him for the hall of fame. Now, I'm certainly not the expert on who should be in the hall and who shouldn't, and maybe McGriff should be. But eventually, if people continue to hit like this, there are going to be people who manage to hit 500 home runs in a year who aren't that great, and just did it because they managed to be slighly above average for a long enough time.
Good for you if you've been slighly above average for a long period of time. That's quite an accomplishment. Very few people can play A ball, much less be an average player. Being an above average player for a long time is not somethin to look down upon by any means. Maybe, in the years ahead, being above average for a long period of time will get you 521 home runs. But Ted Williams got 521 home runs. And he wasn't slightly above average for a long period of time. He was one of the greatest players who ever lived, and hit with authority during the 40's and 50's, (minus a couple of wars). When Ted Williams hit his 500th home run, only Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, and Mel Ott had ever done so before. Were Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams some of the greatest hitters who ever lived? Certainly. But Mel Ott doesn't belong in this group. He played in a great home run park. Of course, one could say that Williams doesn't belong in the same group as Ruth (nobody belongs in the same group as Ruth), and furthermore, that Foxx doesn't belong in the same group as Williams.
I'm not trying to cheapen what McGriff or Palmerio are going to accomplish. It took them years to do it, they played parts of their career before the offensive explosion took hold, they have been great players throughout their career. But something is cheapened. You either have to cheapen their accomplishment, or you cheapen what the greats, Williams, Mantle, Schmidt, Foxx, have accomplished. There is no comparison between Mickey Mantle and Fred McGriff. Between Ken Griffey Jr and Ted Williams. Between Sammy Sosa and Babe Ruth.
Finally, this offensive era might not continue. I certainly don't know how long it will, and unless you're Bud Selig, and you know what rules you will change, you don't either. If the number of home runs goes back to a reasonable pace, 500 home runs will return to the milestone that it once was.
(PS Barry Bonds is also climbing up the ranks, he has a chance to surpass Hank Aaron as the number one home run man. I don't think that he is as good as Williams or Ruth, but I guess that a reasonable person could argue that. )
