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| Hope for Democrats? |
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Many people have talked about Red America vs Blue America, the split between the liberal democratic states on the coasts and
the conservative republican states in "America's Heartland."
Looking forward to 2008, there are really three distinct groups of states, those that the Republicans will probably win (red States), those the democrats will probably win (blue states) and the all important swing states.
I define a swing state as any state which was carried by an average of less than 10% in 2000 and 2004. The Blue states total 168 electoral votes, the red states have 157, so the democrats actually have a small edge. The swing states total 213. Below is a table showing the three categories, and how much the respective candidate won them by. |
| State | Winner | Margin of Victory |
|---|---|---|
| DC | Kerry | 81 |
| Massachusetts | Kerry | 25 |
| Rhode Island | Kerry | 21 |
| Vermont | Kerry | 20 |
| New York | Kerry | 18 |
| Maryland | Kerry | 13 |
| Illinois | Kerry | 10 |
| Connecticut | Kerry | 10 |
| Hawaii | Kerry | 9 |
| California | Kerry | 9 |
| Delaware | Kerry | 7 |
| New Jersey | Kerry | 7 |
| Utah | Bush | 44 |
| Wyoming | Bush | 40 |
| Idaho | Bush | 38 |
| Nebraska | Bush | 33 |
| Oklahoma | Bush | 32 |
| North Dakota | Bush | 27 |
| Alaska | Bush | 27 |
| Alabama | Bush | 26 |
| Kansas | Bush | 25 |
| Texas | Bush | 23 |
| South Dakota | Bush | 21 |
| Indiana | Bush | 21 |
| Kentucky | Bush | 20 |
| Montana | Bush | 20 |
| Mississippi | Bush | 20 |
| South Carolina | Bush | 17 |
| Georgia | Bush | 17 |
| Louisiana | Bush | 15 |
| North Carolina | Bush | 12 |
| Tennessee | Bush | 14 |
| West Virginia | Bush | 13 |
| Arizona | Bush | 11 |
| Arkansas | Bush | 9 |
| Virginia | Bush | 9 |
| Missouri | Bush | 8 |
| Colorado | Bush | 5 |
| Florida | Bush | 5 |
| Nevada | Bush | 3 |
| Ohio | Bush | 2 |
| New Mexico | Bush | 1 |
| Iowa | Bush | 1 |
| Maine | Kerry | 9 |
| Washington | Kerry | 7 |
| Oregon | Kerry | 4 |
| Michigan | Kerry | 3 |
| Minnesota | Kerry | 3 |
| Pennsylvania | Kerry | 2 |
| New Hampshire | Kerry | 1 |
| Wisconsin | Kerry | 1 |
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What might be of interest is that the Republican stronghold isn't in the south so much, but in the West.
The democratic stronghold is the Northeast. Interesting that two Pacific states, Oregon and Washington, are not safe for democrats.
Bush improved from his performance in 2000, winning 51% of the popular vote. Its interesting, however, to see which states he improved in the most. Below is a similar chart, this one organized by how much Bush improved in each state. |
| State | Bush Margin of Victory (loss) | Bush improvement |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 26 | 11 |
| Tennessee | 14 | 11 |
| Oklahoma | 32 | 10 |
| Hawaii | -9 | 9 |
| New Jersey | -7 | 8 |
| Rhode Island | -21 | 8 |
| Louisiana | 15 | 7 |
| Connecticut | -10 | 7 |
| West Virginia | 13 | 7 |
| New York | -18 | 7 |
| Delaware | -7 | 6 |
| Florida | 5 | 5 |
| Mississippi | 20 | 5 |
| Indiana | 21 | 5 |
| Arizona | 11 | 5 |
| Georgia | 17 | 5 |
| Maryland | -13 | 4 |
| Kansas | 25 | 4 |
| Kentucky | 20 | 4 |
| Missouri | 8 | 4 |
| Utah | 44 | 4 |
| California | -9 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 9 | 3 |
| Nebraska | 33 | 3 |
| Iowa | 1 | 2 |
| Illinois | -10 | 2 |
| Texas | 23 | 2 |
| Virginia | 9 | 2 |
| Pennsylvania | -2 | 2 |
| Massachusetts | -25 | 2 |
| South Carolina | 17 | 1 |
| Michigan | -3 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 1 | 1 |
| Nevada | 3 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 40 | -1 |
| North Dakota | 27 | -1 |
| South Dakota | 21 | -1 |
| North Carolina | 12 | -1 |
| Minnesota | -3 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | -1 | -1 |
| New Hampshire | -1 | -2 |
| Washington | -7 | -2 |
| Ohio | 2 | -2 |
| Idaho | 38 | -3 |
| Maine | -9 | -4 |
| Oregon | -4 | -4 |
| Alaska | 27 | -4 |
| Colorado | 5 | -4 |
| Montana | 20 | -4 |
| DC | -81 | -4 |
| Vermont | -20 | -10 |
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The first thing that one could notice is that some of Bush's biggest gains were in solid blue states such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.
One might speculate that this was effected by September 11, and that those people who were effected the most (in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) voted to keep the President.
Of course, that is nothing but pure speculation, and it certainly doesn't explain why the GOP improved in Rhode Island, Delaware and especially not Hawaii.
One other thing you might notice, is that Kerry was just as competitive in the competitive states, if not moreso. He improved in 8 swing states, vs 11 for Bush. And, while that doesn't sound good, its better than the 17-33 ratio that Kerry had overall. Furthermore, Bush improved by about 3% total. Kerry improved or fell by less than 3% in 14 swing states, vs 5 swing states where Bush improved above average. Bush's biggest gain in a swing state was Tennessee, and you can really argue that Tennessee shouldn't be considered a swing state, and that Bush's improvement was because he wasn't running against Gore. Granted, Bush's other big gains, West Virginia, Arizona, Missouri, and the all important Florida, shouldn't be ignored. Of course, none of this isn't to say that Bush didn't do a good job. Bush won, and won by enough. But the democrats have shown that they were certainly competive where it matters most, that they still know how to run elections, and that given a good candidate, they will be competitive in 2008. |